Iraqi newspapers had some in-detail news stories today that I thought worth looking into. Unfortunately, the news go along with what I, and other Iraqis, expected to happen in Iraq in the next few months.

Heavy clashes erupted today between Iraqi security forces and al-Mahdi army in Basra, biggest city in southern Iraq. More than 5 killed so far and 18 wounded.

In Baghdad, eyewitnesses said that Mehdi army members planted IEDs around Sadr city, their haven, to prevent the US and Iraqi forces from entering the city. Also, Mehdi army members used mortars and small arms fire to attack several police stations in Kasra W Atash, Ur neighborhood, Orfely neighborhood and othe neighborhoods around Sadr city. They also attacked offices of fellow Shiite groups like Badr Organization and Dawa Party in and around Sadr city.

Sadr announced “civil” disobedience in Baghdad and Basra today. In Baghdad, Mehdi army members controlled the streets in western Baghdad and blocked the roads, they threatened to arrest anyone goes to school, work or the market. They paralyzed the western side of Baghdad today.

In Basra, the city was described as empty but from the Shiite militias and Iraqi security forces today. Clashes in the streets and people stayed home, fearing to get caught in the mayhem. Dead bodies were seen in the streets, but no one dared to pick them up. Eyewitnesses said that armed men control much of the city now, positioned on the roofs of many houses and shooting at anyone they see in the streets.

Munjid Salahudeen Ritha, the director of the Baghdad morgue, said that the number of bodies found dead in Baghdad has been increasing in the last 15 days. “The morgue receives 15 bodies per day now,” he said.

“The surge is successful.” !!!

Painting by Iraqi artist Betool Fekaiki

Note: Ali has published a new post.

Of course we hear very little about the increasing violence in Iraq in the last few weeks. If we think about it, it makes sense that the US media is not interested in reporting this increase because, the way I see it, the phase now is to lobby and advocate for the US presidential candidates. Each one of them has a “brilliant” strategy to save American troops, but all of them are talking about withdrawing troops from Iraq at some point, and that point does not even mention the Iraqis themselves, who are in dire need for the troops now, and in the coming few months.

But this is not the point that I want to make in this post. My point is the increase of violence.

Car bombs are killing dozens of Iraqis every day. Kidnappings are back to the daily life [as we expected] mutilated bodies are back in the streets, Kurdistan is now under threats of car bombs like the one in Sulaimaniya a few days ago [and I expect more car bombs in the Kurdish region in the coming few months,] statements from Muqtada al-Sadr are back threatening to start another phase in the ongoing civil war in Iraq and the Sunnis in Anbar are openly threatening to rise against the government again [the Council of Anbar Province has put a deadline to meet its demands and the deadline is tomorrow!]

Several days ago, Shiite militias in Kut in southern Iraq carried their guns and started to fight US troops and Iraqi security forces. It is an ongoing fighting and all the sides are losing casualties every day.

And the Nouri al-Maliki regime announced today that it will hold yet another “national reconciliation conference” on Tuesday. The conference will “work to build the state of law,” said a statement by Maliki’s press office. The statement also said that the Maliki regime believes that “it is an equal right for everyone to participate in the political process.”

To show the Maliki regime really believe in what it said in the statement, four days ago Maliki’s office announced that to overcome the shortage in the number of ministers in the cabinet after several of ministers withdrew months ago, the regime decided to replace some of the withdrawn ministers by appointing people without going back to the parliament and shrink the cabinet. [last year, 18 ministers from the Sadr, Allawi and Sunni groups suspended their participation in the cabinet, including the Justice, Health, education and higher Education. The Maliki cabinet total 41 ministers.]

Background:
Muqtada al-Sadr announced a truce with the Maliki regime six or eight moths ago. Sadr ordered his criminals to stop shedding the blood of innocent Iraqis for a while, until his demands were met. His announced demands included: a timetable for foreign troops withdrawal from Iraq, start the reconstruction process and facilitate the return of the Iraqi displaced and refugee populations and secure their areas and an end to the federalization project.

Several months ago, the Sunni group, Tawafuk Front, suspended its participation in the cabinet and put a few demands for the government to meet before they can participate in the government again. Their announced demands included: suspension of the debaathification decree and the return of qualified Iraqi's to their jobs to help run the falling state, the release of “innocent Iraqis” who are in US military or Iraqi regime prisons, facilitate the return of the Iraqi displaced and refugee populations and secure their areas, an end to the federalization project and more involvement in the planning and execution of security operations.

Ayad Allawi’s group, the Iraqi National Accord, suspended its participation in the government several months ago because, they said, they did not want to be part of the “sectarian political process” in the country. They demanded a “real national reconciliation,” facilitate the return of the Iraqi displaced and refugee populations and secure their areas and an end to the intervention of Iran in Iraq’s internal and external affairs.

The Kurds demanded a solution for the issue of Kirkuk. According to the constitution, a referendum should have been held in December to decide whether the residents of the city want their city to be part of Kurdistan or not. But the MAliki regime keeps ignoring the issue. Also, they asked the regime to sign the Oil Law, or find another one, and the regime is ignoring the issue too.

The Bush administration has started, although to little too late, an effort to bring to the table leaders of the so called “Iraqi resistance” and former high ranking baathists to try to quell the violence. The US military also held talks with members of the opposition against the Maliki regime to try to compromise and find ways to include them in the decision making process. the US military was also trying to find ways to convince the Maliki regime to start taking charge of the process to bring back the displaced Iraqis to their homes.

And the US military succeeded to turn many Sunnis against al-Qaeda and recruited them to fight side by side with US troops and root out hundreds of insurgents and militias. For the first time in years, the Iraqis felt like they are fighting for their country back, not against each other.

What was Maliki’s response?

It authorized more and more raids on houses in the Sadr city and in Najaf, in which hundreds of Sadr followers [innocent and involved in violence] were arrested, and are still in prison with no charges or hope for release.

It authorized more and more raids on Sunni areas and provinces, in which hundreds of Sunnis [innocent and involved in violence] were arrested, and are still in prison with no charges or hope for release.

It integrated 18000 more Shiite militia members in the Iraqi security forces and ignited serious concerns in the Iraqi community because people are afraid that more criminals were brought into the security forces to help in the ongoing ethnic and sectarian cleansing.

It refused to integrate Sunni Awakening Council members, number more than 80,000, in the Iraqi security forces and refused to pay their salaries and arrested many of them [the excuse was that they belong to insurgents groups.]

Representatives from the Maliki regime visited several neighboring and regional countries and struck deals with them to force out the Iraqi refugees [because it is a political suicide for the regime to allow millions of Iraqis to leave the country. The world will start to ask: why are they leaving if everything is going right in Iraq?] And the regime sent buses to bring back the refugees for free and promised them $800 per family to help them get started again. But when the refugees arrived, they found themselves homeless because their houses were broken into by militias and insurgents. They couldn’t go back to their houses, the Maliki regime cannot help them or secure their houses, and now they are displaced within their country. And the $800 was a lie!

The Maliki regime passed an amendment to the debaathification decree, only it was not amended and nothing was changed but a few words, in which I believe they used a thesaurus to mean the same old thing!

Maliki invited Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to Iraq and signed dozens of security and economy treaties and contracts with him, when most of the Iraqis don’t want Iran to be involved in anything in Iraq!

The Maliki regime announced that it is going to shrink the cabinet to deal with the issue of the missing ministers!

That means: The demands of the participating political groups in Iraq are not being discussed, compromised or met. And that means that the reasons why those groups agreed to sit around one table and negotiate in the first place is missing. Why should Sadr continue the truce? Why should the Sunnis and Allawi’s group come back to the cabinet? Even if Sadr announced an extension to the truce, does that mean that, behind closed doors, he is not going to order his criminals to resume the violence, but why? What is he going to get if he helps to quell the violence? And even if the ministers went back to the cabinet, aren’t they still in disagreement with the Maliki regime, or at least their political groups are in total disagreement with the regime because their demands were ignored? How are they going to run the country if the disagree on everything?

And why should the refugees and displaced trust the regime?

In a few words: The Maliki regime is sabotaging every single effort the US administration and military are trying to organize in Iraq. And of course, it is sabotaging what the qualified Iraqis are trying to do to help the country.

And now when we want to predict what will happen in Iraq in the next few months, it will be easy:

The number of car bombs will increase not double, not triple, but seven or eight times. The number of beheaded and mutilated bodies will increase all over Iraq. The Kurds will get more violence in their region to keep the Kurds busy with violence and postpone the issues they are concerned about. Kirkuk will be the stage of a blood bath to force the Maliki regime to find a way to deal with the issue. The Awakening Councils will be targeted more and more in the next few months. And of course, the electricity, fuel and other infrastructure will always be missing.

Painting by Iraqi artist Betool Fekaiki

Staffan de Mistura, the UN representative in Iraq, met with Ali al-Sistani in Najaf yesterday and “discussed the political and security situation” in the country.

That did not surprise me, given that the international community is desperate and clueless on the Iraqi issue that everyone is trying to find a way out. But the news made me wonder: Why do they insist on doing exactly what the Iraqis are asking them not to do?

Is that how it came down to in Iraq? One of the richest countries in the world, absolutely the richest in history and civilization and until recently produced some of the world’s brightest scientists, doctors, engineers, professors and artists-- now is reduced to a shell of its former self and is led by a turbaned foreigner, whose interested in nothing but to get a fifth of each rich Shiite’s income every year?

Iraq now is formally led by someone whose mission in life is, and should always be, answering questions like: Is it necessary for a woman to compensate the prayers and fasts which she missed during menses?

Or Is it permissible to manufacture, sell, or buy musical instruments that are made for children’s play? And is it permissible for adults to use them?

Questions quoted from Sistani’s website. You can read more here.

That’s his job. Not to demean him or disrespect his knowledge, but that’s what the man is good for-- answering this kind of questions is all he is trained to do. And some people need someone like him in their life.

How is that possible? 25 million Iraqis, and we cannot find 10 qualified men and women to run the country! Or maybe someone is not looking in the right place?

Who is Sistani to come and tell me and my family what to do and who to vote for? As a religious man, I respect him and his background. But that’s about it. I wouldn’t go further and ask him about anything else. He did not study politics. He did not study economy. He did not study international relations, and definitely didn’t serve in the military. The man hasn’t left his house in years. How can he be reliable or qualified to answer questions about the situation in Iraq?

This man has damaged Iraq more than anyone else, or I should say as much as Harith al-Dhari has, by just being silent. How can I trust him on my country’s long awaited unity when he encourages people to disrespect each other?

Read this, which I found on his website:
Is it permissible to offer congregational prayers behind a Sunni prayer leader?

And instead of saying: of course. You are both Muslims. You are both Iraqis and you are brothers, which any respectful human being would say, this Mullah answered: It is permissible but you must recite Hamd and Sura yourself even though the recitation may be in low voice.

Which is to say: reciting Quran by the Sunnis doesn’t count. You should do it yourself. Is that the reply of a man who wants to quell the religious and ethnic conflict in Iraq?

And now, the UN comes to ask him for advice on how to proceed in Iraq! And Mistura said “this is the first visit and there will be other visits to discuss the situation with him and ask for advice.”

Iraqis are fed up with religious leaders, Sunnis and Shiites. We do not want them to meddle in our lives anymore. They can continue to advice on menstrual issues and pilgrimage, because that’s what they’ve studied and have been preaching. But that’s it. Nothing more.

I’ve said this over and over again in the last two years, but no one wants to believe an Iraqi talking about Iraq! But now, the New York Times has finally figured it out.

After almost five years of war, many young people in Iraq, exhausted by constant firsthand exposure to the violence of religious extremism, say they have grown disillusioned with religious leaders and skeptical of the faith that they preach.

Why does the international community keep going against the Iraqis’ will? Why do we have to keep yelling “take a right. Take right. We’ll be lost if you don’t.” And the person behind the wheel insists on going left?

Why does the US and the UN keep involving religious figures, and not even the moderate ones, in the political process in Iraq? Who is advising them, if any?

Sistani and Dhari, and people like them, have never and will never be the solution for Iraq. How many times do we have to repeat this, and how many more Iraqis have to die, for the world to realize that we want qualified politicians, not turbaned snakes?

Painting by Iraqi artist Betool Fekaiki